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research/weather-meta-learning/resources/Model 5.218 test regions · 15 training regions

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Every result from the weather study in one place: where the model learned, where it was tested, and how it did, grouped by Köppen climate.

map/

Where it learned, where it was tested.

Hover or tap a square. Filled squares are test regions coloured by error; dashed outlines are the regions used for meta-training. Filter by climate group to compare like with like.

test region, colour = error (green is lower)training regionlow errorhigh
Each square is the real 5° × 5° area the model sees. Background dots are 2° cells coloured by their main Köppen group. Error is normalised MSE over 688 forecasts in Jan–Mar 2025, where 1.0 equals climatology.
trained-on/

15 training regions across 5 climate groups.

A · Tropical
  • IndiaAw 77% · BSh 19% · Cwa 4%
  • ThailandAm 25% · Aw 5%
  • Thailand/CambodiaAw 81% · Am 15% · Af 2%
  • Amazon BasinAm 63% · Af 29% · Aw 8%
B · Arid
  • Libya/EgyptBWh 100%
  • SpainBSk 57% · Csa 14% · BWk 1%
  • Australia OutbackBWh 53% · BSh 47%
  • Andes (Peru/Bolivia)BSk 24% · Cwb 22% · ET 21%
C · Temperate
  • E. JapanCfa 15% · Dfb 9% · Dfa 7%
  • TexasCfa 69% · BSh 19% · BSk 12%
D · Continental
  • Russia (Moscow)Dfb 100%
  • N. Italy/AlpsDfb 29% · Cfb 20% · Dfc 19%
  • NE ChinaDwb 66% · Dwa 34%
  • AlbertaDfb 69% · Dfc 31%
E · Polar
  • GreenlandEF 73% · ET 9%

Köppen mixes are measured on each region's 0.25° grid from the project's climate raster. Percentages are of the whole box, so coastal regions add up to less than 100%.

results/a-tropical/

Tropical hot and humid all year · 6 regions

India

Aw
81%less error than climatology
1.58 Ktemp RMSE
0.192norm. MSE
290295300d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 288.1 K+6 h · true 290.4 K+9 h · true 299.8 K+12 h · true 302.9 K+15 h · true 299.9 K+18 h · true 293.1 K+21 h · true 290.5 K+24 h · true 288.9 K+3 h · predicted 289.0 K+6 h · predicted 291.3 K+9 h · predicted 297.4 K+12 h · predicted 300.9 K+15 h · predicted 298.6 K+18 h · predicted 293.5 K+21 h · predicted 290.7 K+24 h · predicted 289.4 K
inputtruepredicted
area also used in meta-training

Thailand

Am
68%less error than climatology
0.9 Ktemp RMSE
0.321norm. MSE
297298299300301302303d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 298.9 K+6 h · true 300.6 K+9 h · true 301.7 K+12 h · true 301.6 K+15 h · true 300.6 K+18 h · true 299.8 K+21 h · true 299.3 K+24 h · true 298.9 K+3 h · predicted 298.9 K+6 h · predicted 300.4 K+9 h · predicted 301.4 K+12 h · predicted 301.1 K+15 h · predicted 300.4 K+18 h · predicted 299.6 K+21 h · predicted 299.1 K+24 h · predicted 298.6 K
inputtruepredicted
area also used in meta-training

Indonesia

Af
65%less error than climatology
0.99 Ktemp RMSE
0.353norm. MSE
296297298299300301302303304d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 298.1 K+6 h · true 300.3 K+9 h · true 301.8 K+12 h · true 301.6 K+15 h · true 300.2 K+18 h · true 299.0 K+21 h · true 298.6 K+24 h · true 298.2 K+3 h · predicted 298.0 K+6 h · predicted 300.6 K+9 h · predicted 301.9 K+12 h · predicted 301.4 K+15 h · predicted 299.9 K+18 h · predicted 298.9 K+21 h · predicted 298.2 K+24 h · predicted 297.7 K
inputtruepredicted

Debundscha, Cameroon

Am
65%less error than climatology
0.81 Ktemp RMSE
0.353norm. MSE
298299300301302303304d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 299.8 K+6 h · true 299.7 K+9 h · true 299.9 K+12 h · true 301.1 K+15 h · true 302.6 K+18 h · true 301.6 K+21 h · true 300.9 K+24 h · true 300.4 K+3 h · predicted 300.2 K+6 h · predicted 300.0 K+9 h · predicted 300.1 K+12 h · predicted 300.8 K+15 h · predicted 302.3 K+18 h · predicted 301.4 K+21 h · predicted 300.9 K+24 h · predicted 300.6 K
inputtruepredicted

Queensland, Australia

Aw
61%less error than climatology
0.83 Ktemp RMSE
0.388norm. MSE
299300301302303304305d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 301.4 K+6 h · true 301.4 K+9 h · true 301.5 K+12 h · true 301.7 K+15 h · true 303.1 K+18 h · true 301.5 K+21 h · true 301.0 K+24 h · true 300.9 K+3 h · predicted 300.9 K+6 h · predicted 301.1 K+9 h · predicted 301.1 K+12 h · predicted 301.0 K+15 h · predicted 302.5 K+18 h · predicted 300.8 K+21 h · predicted 300.7 K+24 h · predicted 300.7 K
inputtruepredicted

Amazon, Brazil

Af
43%less error than climatology
1.32 Ktemp RMSE
0.572norm. MSE
296298300302304306d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 299.2 K+6 h · true 297.8 K+9 h · true 297.3 K+12 h · true 297.3 K+15 h · true 297.8 K+18 h · true 299.3 K+21 h · true 300.2 K+24 h · true 298.6 K+3 h · predicted 299.1 K+6 h · predicted 298.0 K+9 h · predicted 297.4 K+12 h · predicted 297.1 K+15 h · predicted 299.0 K+18 h · predicted 302.1 K+21 h · predicted 302.9 K+24 h · predicted 301.4 K
inputtruepredicted
results/b-arid/

Arid deserts and steppes · 4 regions

Sudan

BWh
86%less error than climatology
1.85 Ktemp RMSE
0.138norm. MSE
285290295300305d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 291.8 K+6 h · true 289.8 K+9 h · true 292.2 K+12 h · true 299.4 K+15 h · true 303.5 K+18 h · true 302.9 K+21 h · true 298.8 K+24 h · true 295.1 K+3 h · predicted 292.5 K+6 h · predicted 290.9 K+9 h · predicted 293.4 K+12 h · predicted 299.0 K+15 h · predicted 302.6 K+18 h · predicted 301.5 K+21 h · predicted 298.4 K+24 h · predicted 295.7 K
inputtruepredicted

Sahara, Mali

BWh
81%less error than climatology
2.4 Ktemp RMSE
0.191norm. MSE
285290295300d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 287.4 K+6 h · true 285.7 K+9 h · true 284.9 K+12 h · true 288.0 K+15 h · true 295.4 K+18 h · true 297.9 K+21 h · true 294.3 K+24 h · true 290.9 K+3 h · predicted 290.6 K+6 h · predicted 288.2 K+9 h · predicted 287.6 K+12 h · predicted 291.7 K+15 h · predicted 297.5 K+18 h · predicted 299.6 K+21 h · predicted 297.0 K+24 h · predicted 293.6 K
inputtruepredicted

Afar, Ethiopia

BWh
77%less error than climatology
1.69 Ktemp RMSE
0.230norm. MSE
292294296298300302d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 294.4 K+6 h · true 294.0 K+9 h · true 296.2 K+12 h · true 299.8 K+15 h · true 301.2 K+18 h · true 298.9 K+21 h · true 296.8 K+24 h · true 295.0 K+3 h · predicted 295.3 K+6 h · predicted 295.6 K+9 h · predicted 297.8 K+12 h · predicted 300.9 K+15 h · predicted 301.9 K+18 h · predicted 300.2 K+21 h · predicted 298.1 K+24 h · predicted 296.6 K
inputtruepredicted

Argentina

BSh
51%less error than climatology
2.77 Ktemp RMSE
0.489norm. MSE
290295300305d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 296.5 K+6 h · true 293.1 K+9 h · true 291.4 K+12 h · true 290.4 K+15 h · true 294.4 K+18 h · true 300.3 K+21 h · true 303.6 K+24 h · true 303.0 K+3 h · predicted 296.3 K+6 h · predicted 293.1 K+9 h · predicted 290.9 K+12 h · predicted 290.2 K+15 h · predicted 293.1 K+18 h · predicted 298.8 K+21 h · predicted 302.3 K+24 h · predicted 301.3 K
inputtruepredicted
results/d-continental/

Continental cold winters, warm summers · 5 regions

Oymyakon, Russia

Dwc
79%less error than climatology
4.38 Ktemp RMSE
0.207norm. MSE
230235240245250d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 247.0 K+6 h · true 248.5 K+9 h · true 248.7 K+12 h · true 248.5 K+15 h · true 249.4 K+18 h · true 249.9 K+21 h · true 249.9 K+24 h · true 249.7 K+3 h · predicted 247.3 K+6 h · predicted 247.6 K+9 h · predicted 247.6 K+12 h · predicted 247.4 K+15 h · predicted 247.0 K+18 h · predicted 246.5 K+21 h · predicted 246.2 K+24 h · predicted 246.1 K
inputtruepredicted

Verkhoyansk, Russia

Dwc
75%less error than climatology
4.38 Ktemp RMSE
0.251norm. MSE
226228230232234236238d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 226.1 K+6 h · true 227.6 K+9 h · true 229.5 K+12 h · true 230.5 K+15 h · true 231.7 K+18 h · true 233.4 K+21 h · true 235.0 K+24 h · true 236.9 K+3 h · predicted 230.0 K+6 h · predicted 230.0 K+9 h · predicted 230.1 K+12 h · predicted 230.3 K+15 h · predicted 230.6 K+18 h · predicted 230.8 K+21 h · predicted 231.3 K+24 h · predicted 231.6 K
inputtruepredicted

Moscow

Dfb
58%less error than climatology
3.33 Ktemp RMSE
0.416norm. MSE
266268270272274276278d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 268.0 K+6 h · true 267.6 K+9 h · true 267.6 K+12 h · true 269.1 K+15 h · true 273.7 K+18 h · true 269.1 K+21 h · true 268.6 K+24 h · true 268.1 K+3 h · predicted 267.8 K+6 h · predicted 268.4 K+9 h · predicted 269.0 K+12 h · predicted 269.3 K+15 h · predicted 273.1 K+18 h · predicted 268.6 K+21 h · predicted 268.0 K+24 h · predicted 267.6 K
inputtruepredicted
area also used in meta-training

Lytton, Canada

Dfc
57%less error than climatology
2.82 Ktemp RMSE
0.434norm. MSE
256258260262264266268d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 262.8 K+6 h · true 262.3 K+9 h · true 262.4 K+12 h · true 262.6 K+15 h · true 265.2 K+18 h · true 262.5 K+21 h · true 263.9 K+24 h · true 265.5 K+3 h · predicted 263.5 K+6 h · predicted 262.9 K+9 h · predicted 262.2 K+12 h · predicted 262.0 K+15 h · predicted 264.7 K+18 h · predicted 262.7 K+21 h · predicted 263.5 K+24 h · predicted 264.0 K
inputtruepredicted

New York

Dfb
46%less error than climatology
3.65 Ktemp RMSE
0.544norm. MSE
268270272274276278280d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 271.9 K+6 h · true 270.8 K+9 h · true 269.7 K+12 h · true 268.6 K+15 h · true 273.7 K+18 h · true 268.3 K+21 h · true 269.6 K+24 h · true 269.6 K+3 h · predicted 272.8 K+6 h · predicted 271.8 K+9 h · predicted 270.8 K+12 h · predicted 270.5 K+15 h · predicted 271.2 K+18 h · predicted 271.9 K+21 h · predicted 272.7 K+24 h · predicted 273.1 K
inputtruepredicted
results/e-polar/

Polar tundra and ice · 3 regions

Afghanistan

ET
69%less error than climatology
2.97 Ktemp RMSE
0.312norm. MSE
260261262263264265266267268d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 263.1 K+6 h · true 262.8 K+9 h · true 263.1 K+12 h · true 264.5 K+15 h · true 264.5 K+18 h · true 263.4 K+21 h · true 262.4 K+24 h · true 262.2 K+3 h · predicted 261.1 K+6 h · predicted 261.4 K+9 h · predicted 263.4 K+12 h · predicted 265.3 K+15 h · predicted 265.5 K+18 h · predicted 264.1 K+21 h · predicted 262.8 K+24 h · predicted 262.0 K
inputtruepredicted

North Siberia

ET
60%less error than climatology
4.24 Ktemp RMSE
0.404norm. MSE
245250255260265d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 250.5 K+6 h · true 249.7 K+9 h · true 249.0 K+12 h · true 248.7 K+15 h · true 263.0 K+18 h · true 247.4 K+21 h · true 247.3 K+24 h · true 246.7 K+3 h · predicted 248.9 K+6 h · predicted 248.8 K+9 h · predicted 248.6 K+12 h · predicted 248.4 K+15 h · predicted 255.3 K+18 h · predicted 248.3 K+21 h · predicted 248.5 K+24 h · predicted 248.6 K
inputtruepredicted

Svalbard, Norway

ET
42%less error than climatology
2.6 Ktemp RMSE
0.579norm. MSE
264266268270272d1d2d3d4+3 h · true 270.6 K+6 h · true 270.8 K+9 h · true 270.8 K+12 h · true 270.9 K+15 h · true 271.0 K+18 h · true 270.4 K+21 h · true 269.9 K+24 h · true 269.9 K+3 h · predicted 269.3 K+6 h · predicted 269.2 K+9 h · predicted 269.2 K+12 h · predicted 269.1 K+15 h · predicted 269.1 K+18 h · predicted 269.0 K+21 h · predicted 269.0 K+24 h · predicted 268.9 K
inputtruepredicted
notes/
  • Scores are over all 688 forecast windows from January to March 2025 per region. The charts show only the first window, which is what the original plots show.
  • The redrawn temperature lines were read back from the validation plots, accurate to about ±0.2 K. The original images are linked under each chart.
  • “Less error than climatology” is 1 − normalised MSE: the share of the baseline's squared error that the model removes.